Is Government Employment Down?

The Wall Street Journal claims federal employment, excluding postal workers, is the “lowest total in seven years” and includes the following chart.

Wall Street Journal chart

Because this is a surprising factoid, I posted it on Facebook. After receiving a comment that 1.6% is probably off by a decimal, I started to question the data. I headed off to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ web site to see if I could duplicate the WSJ’s chart.

Here is the BLS chart of federal employment excluding postal workers.

Federal employment excluding postal workers

This doesn’t match the Wall Street Journal’s chart, not even close. Yeah, there’s the huge bump for World War II, but the trends don’t match. This chart shows federal employment steadily increasing until the early ’90s instead of generally decreasing since the mid-’50s. That’s when I noticed that the Wall Street Journal plotted federal workers as a percentage of total non-farm employment, not as an absolute number.

So, what is total non-farm employment? Here is the BLS chart of non-farm employment, which shows a steady rise until the turn of the millennium.

Non-farm employment

Now, all I need is an easy way to divide the first chart by the second chart…

Getting both data series using the BLS series report tool wasn’t that hard. Nor was creating a spreadsheet that contained both and then dividing government employment by total non-farm employment. Surprise — the Wall Street Journal didn’t slip a decimal.1

Now for the chart I created:

WSJ Chart Recreated

Ha! Looks pretty close to the WSJ’s.2 Good to know. :-)

1At least, not in the chart. The WSJ article’s first paragraph reads, “21.9 million: The number of government workers in the U.S. in January, the lowest total in seven years.” That first number is off by a factor of ten. It should be 2.19 million.
2The blips every ten years in my chart are probably census employees, which the WSJ eliminated from its chart…somehow.

Discouraged Workers

Discouraged Workers

A common1 complaint is unemployment statistics don’t include “discouraged workers.”2 These “workers” however are being tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Here is a chart showing discouraged workers, in thousands.

I am posting this chart as support for a discussion I’m having on Facebook.

1And valid.
2Those at least 16 years old, who are unemployed and want a job, but have quit looking for work because they believe no job is available.